Few would be surprised to hear that the NHS is under immense strain. While the precise ranking of causes may vary, four challenges consistently surface: an ageing population, rising rates of long-term conditions, persistent workforce shortages, and funding that lags behind demand.
One factor less frequently spotlighted is the growing complexity and cost of specialist medicines. Since 2018, initiatives to encourage biosimilar uptake have expanded, with UK spending on these medicines climbing from £6.63 billion in 2017 to £9.45 billion in 2023. Though cost-effective in many respects, these therapies often require additional monitoring, which places further demands on clinical teams.
Delivering appropriate care outside hospital settings offers significant benefits: easier access for patients, reduced admissions, better health outcomes, and increased system capacity. Clinical Homecare has emerged as one of the most promising models, already supporting an estimated 600,000 patients annually. Yet, evidence suggests as many as 6.8 million patients could be eligible for this type of support.
Realising this potential shift would ease hospital workloads and tackle rising costs — but scaling from hundreds of thousands to millions requires smarter triage, onboarding, and ongoing support. Without innovation, the workforce cannot absorb the additional demand.
To address this gap, HealthNet Homecare is launching AdherePredict, the first AI-driven predictive analytics platform designed for UK Clinical Homecare.
AdherePredict uses machine learning to evaluate multiple data points — such as prescription collection history, treatment complexity, and socio-economic context — to predict which patients are most at risk of non-adherence. These insights allow care teams to:
Studies consistently show that interventions designed around patient-specific risks and behaviours are more effective than generic approaches. By aligning support with predicted needs, AdherePredict helps ensure both better outcomes and more efficient use of NHS resources.
Up to 50% of chronic disease patients do not take their medicines as prescribed, leading to complications, re-hospitalisations, and poorer quality of life. Combined with staffing shortages across primary, secondary, and specialist care, this non-adherence compounds capacity issues.
Clinical Homecare already delivers the equivalent of 15 NHS Trusts worth of day case elective capacity every year, saving the NHS an estimated £264 million annually. By directing patients to the right level of support through AdherePredict, these benefits can be multiplied.
With streamlined referral processes and one-click integration into community services, the platform reduces administrative burden and enables Trusts to reallocate limited hospital appointments more effectively.
The NHS faces financial constraints as well as workforce ones. According to the Lord Darzi review, years of underinvestment have left the service vulnerable. NHS England’s budget, when adjusted for demographic shifts, is projected to be 1% lower in 2024/25 than in the previous year.
Community-based chronic disease management has been shown internationally to:
By identifying at-risk patients early, AdherePredict makes it possible to prioritise resources, avoid deterioration, and sustain long-term investment. This personalised approach is not only clinically effective but also more affordable than a “blanket” model of support.
AdherePredict offers the NHS, pharma partners, and homecare providers a way to act earlier, personalise interventions, and reduce the hidden costs of non-adherence. By embedding predictive insights into community-based pathways, the platform supports both patient wellbeing and system efficiency.
In short: smarter data, proactive care, better outcomes — for patients, staff, and the health system as a whole.
As healthcare moves towards personalised, preventative care, AdherePredict is helping organisations lead the way.
